(示意圖/圖片來源:Pixabay)

供暖部門

上一篇文章中介紹了北美洲的工業用木顆粒產業(北美洲木顆粒產業介紹 (上)),這一篇則是著重於供暖用木顆粒市場。相較於工業部門主要由政府政策推動,供暖方面取決於加熱用燃料的相對成本,過去大多數地區之木顆粒成本低於其他形態的供暖成本,,但是由於全球原油價格下滑導致燃料價格崩盤後,最近加熱燃料油及丙烷價格成為成本最低的加熱用燃料,價格在每桶62.50美元左右的情況下,即便木顆粒價格超過每噸200美元,加熱燃料油價格與木顆粒價格相當。儘管具有成本效益,但市場並沒有像能源一樣成長。

家用木顆粒供暖市場幾乎沒有成長太多,目前有21%供暖用木顆粒來自北美洲,供應量約1,500萬噸。其供過於求的現象對於北美洲的生產環境而言,代表產能的浪費,美國與加拿大在2016年底產能約1,270萬噸/年,顯示有產能過剩情況。

若油價自2018年開始回升,供暖用木顆粒可能會恢復過去的成長,然而,受到歐洲暖冬,以及太陽能與風力發電裝置持續擴張影響,可能會減少石油需求。部分預測認為2025年供暖市場需求預期成長至950萬噸。在大多數歐洲國家,加熱用油被課徵較高昂的稅率,因此需求比較會受到氣候而非石油價格所影響。導致加熱用木顆粒需求不足來自傳統加熱用燃料價格低廉,以及因氣候變遷導致暖冬等兩方面影響,2015年歐洲暖冬導致需求明顯下滑,對供暖需求較過去平均低了20%,木顆粒除了供暖外還有其他用途,但是否足以重新回到市場,仍待觀察。

對亞洲的啟示

亞洲由於冬季較短及全球溫升的影響,熱能市場並無發展可能,大多數亞洲都市人口往往在較為溫暖的環境中聚集,供暖需求絕大多數來自歐洲,且主要仰賴美國與加拿大來源,但已經面臨供過於求的狀態。

(責任翻譯:吳周燕)

 


The Wood Pellet Industry: Industrial and Heating Market in North America  Part II

Heating Sector

Unlike the industrial sector which is driven mostly by government policy, the heating side depends on the relative cost of heating fuels. Historically pellets cost less than other forms of heating in most regions. However, after the crash of fuel prices heating oil and propane prices have recently emerged as the lowest cost heating fuel. At about $62.50 per barrel, heating oil prices are comparable with wood pellets even at more than $200 USD per ton pellet price. Despite the cost benefits, the market has not grown the same way as energy.

The market for home heating of pellets does not grow nearly as much. Right now 21% of heating wood pellets come from North America, with a 15Mt supply of pellets. This surplus exists on top of an already over capacity North American production environment means wasted capacity. Over supply of US and Canadian production capacity by the end of 2016 was around 12.7 million tones per year.

If the cost of oil rebounds from 2018 onwards, heating pellets may resume traditional growth. However, increases in winter temperatures especially in Europe and the continued expansions of solar and wind may be enough to reduce demands for oil. Some are forecasting an increase in demand of 9.5 million tons by 2025. In most of Europe, where many countries have high taxes on heating oil, demand is more driven by weather than by oil prices. A lack of demand in heating pellets comes from two areas the low price of traditional heating fuels and the potential for more mild winters due to climate change. Due to the warmth of 2015’s winter in Europe demand fell noticeably, as heating requirements were 20% below average. Pellets have a use beyond heating, but is it enough to re-engage the market?

Lessons for Asia

The heating market for Asia will likely never take off due both to shorter Winters and rising temperatures. Most Asian urban populations tend to aggregate in warmer environments. In terms of production the demand for heating comes mostly from the EU who can depend on already overcapacity market from the US and Canada.


【延伸閱讀】

北美經驗:木顆粒在工業應用及家庭供暖市場分析(上)
The Wood Pellet Industry: Industrial and Heating Market in North America  Part I

 

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